1.1 Global Environmental Change and the Human Dimensions

Over the last few decades natural sciences research has revealed a number of specific relationships between human activities and environmental changes on a global scale. From the analysis of these changes, it has become clear that global life-support systems such as the global climate, the global gene pool (biodiversity), and some of the major biogeochemical cycles such as the hydrological cycle and the carbon and nitrogen cycles are significantly affected by human activities. The effects of some of these human interventions are becoming visible, while other effects are still uncertain. Overall, the effects and potential effects are considered important enough to reconsider and adjust the ways and means by which primary human needs in the field of energy, food, water, shelter, etc. are met.

In response to the concerns raised, governments, corporations, and other stakeholders have taken a range of actions. Moreover, a series of international agreements have been developed to mitigate and manage potential problems. In the course of this process it has become increasingly clear that analysis of the issue of global environmental change and the development of societal responses would greatly benefit from the input of the social sciences.
The International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) on Global Environmental Change is an international, interdisciplinary science programme co-sponsored by the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the International Council for Science (ICSU). It was established to complement the earlier natural sciences programmes such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and the International Programme of Biodiversity Science (DIVERSITAS). As the only programme of its kind operating formally at a global level, the IHDP provides a unique forum and institutional setting for global environmental change research focussing on human dimensions. Over the last few years, IHDP has selected four major themes for internationally co-ordinated science projects:

1. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC), co-sponsored by IGBP (HDP and IGBP, 1995);
2. Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) (IHDP, 1999a);
3. Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) (IHDP, 1999b); and
4. Industrial Transformation.

A Science Plan has been developed for each of these science projects. This document constitutes the Science Plan for the Industrial Transformation Project.
 

1.2 Characteristics of Industrial Transformation Research

It is increasingly recognised that important changes in production and consumption systems will be required to meet the needs and aspirations of a growing world population while using environmental resources in a sustainable manner. Scientific research focussing on these systems endeavours to overcome disciplinary boundaries and be international in scope. In recent years this challenge has been discussed internationally under the label "Industrial Transformation".

A Scientific Planning Committee on Industrial Transformation was established in 1998 to develop a research agenda for the Industrial Transformation Science Plan through an internationally co-ordinated, bottom-up participatory process. This Science Plan is a research framework for the next five to ten years that will continue to evolve and be modified. The numerous contributors include international researchers, many of whom submitted research ideas, and private sector, NGO, and policy stakeholders who have participated in regional workshops and the Open Science Meeting.

1.2.1 Overarching Goal
Industrial Transformation research seeks to understand complex society-environment interactions, identify driving forces for change, and explore development trajectories that have a significantly smaller burden on the environment. The research focuses on the systems that presently have a major effect on the quality of the global environment, such as energy, food, water, transport, and cities. The potential and the feasibility of radical production and consumption systems changes, including the incentive structure and related institutional setting, are the central areas of study in this Science Plan.

1.2.2 Operational Goal of the  Science Plan
The Industrial Transformation Science Plan aims to:

1. create an internationally shared reference document to enhance communication about research on Industrial Transformation and the global environment for researchers, research planners, and the relevant stakeholders in global change research;
2. develop and strengthen international co-operation in the relatively new area of research on the interactions between societal change, technological change, and environmental change; and
3. identify a number of research questions that will provide the basis for a series of international research projects to be supported and promoted by IHDP (funding of such projects, however, will have to come through existing research funding agencies and organisations).

1.2.3 Industrial Transformation Research Characteristics
Four general characteristics have been outlined to set certain limitations as to what would qualify as Industrial Transformation research:

1. Industrial Transformation research deals with the relationship between societal, technological, and environmental change;
2. Industrial Transformation research focuses on systems and system changes that are relevant in view of the global environment;
3. Industrial Transformation research relates producer and consumer perspectives, including the incentives and institutions that help in shaping these perspectives. This implies that the research aims to increase understanding of the relations of, and interdependencies between, the macro-level (governance and institutions at local, national, and international level), the meso-level (sectors, companies, and communities) and the micro-level (consumers and households); and
4. Industrial Transformation research is international in scope. Researchers from more than one country, and preferably more than one continent should co-operate on each research project.

1.2.4 Related Policy Initiatives
The issue of change in consumption and production patterns is on the agenda of numerous public and private organisations worldwide, all of which have struggled to some extent to identify an appropriate agenda for action. Appendix I outlines some of the activities and priorities of production and consumption research in numerous organisations, including the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
 

1.3 Systems Change and the Global Environment

Industrial Transformation research is motivated by a concern for the global environment and the question of how to meet the present and future needs and aspirations of a growing world population.
IHDP distinguishes three types of global environmental issues:

1. Truly global environmental systems such as ozone layer depletion, climate change, global biodiversity, and/or resource depletion;
2. Universal practices that, through their cumulative effect, could over time result in global problems such as water scarcity and water pollution, eutrophication, acidification, land degradation, deforestation, and ground water pollution;
3. Regional environmental issues that could, over time, develop into global problems as a result of "knock-on effects", for example regional situations that could lead to political instability, situations that could trigger diseases which in turn could spread around the world, or problems that could generate environmental refugees.

The major global environmental issues as recognised by the scientific community (ICSU, the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), IGBP, etc.) and the global policy community (Agenda 21 and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), etc.) are: climate change, loss of biodiversity, and the overexploitation of soils and water. From a natural sciences point of view, these issues can be described in terms of the challenge to understand and manage the human impact on the global biogeochemical cycles such as carbon, nitrogen, and water, and the challenge to use biodiversity and land in a sustainable manner.

From a social sciences perspective, these global environmental issues are seen as problems directly related to society through the ways in which human needs and preferences are met in the following four domains: energy, food, land, and water. These domains can also be grouped as nutrition (food and water), habitation (energy, housing, and working), health (human and ecosystem), and communication and transport (people, resources, and materials). Each of these domains draws on and impacts environmental systems and resources.

To date, research has investigated mainly specific aspects of these four domains, for example production and production efficiency of energy and food. It is increasingly recognised that a better understanding of both consumption processes and the factors driving shifts in production and consumption is equally as important to achieve our research goals of identifying and exploring development trajectories which have significantly less impact on the environment. Changes in production and consumption systems, including the incentive structure and related institutional setting, are the object of Industrial Transformation research.

In the framework of Industrial Transformation research, a system is defined as a chain of interrelated economic activities aimed at providing a specific need for society (e.g., energy and materials, food, and transport). Such systems include the actors (government, producers, and consumers), the related flow of goods and/or services (including the metabolism along the chain), and the overall physical and institutional setting in which they operate.

In some cases system changes in the past have occurred as a result of scientific and technological developments that through their progressive adoption replace existing systems (for example the steam engine, and at a later stage, information technology). System changes have also occurred as a result of technical and institutional innovation inspired by societal problems (the green revolution, for example, was driven by the concern about food shortages). In many cases system changes are driven by a combination of societal concerns,
economic/technological opportunities, and societal ambitions. System change comes about relatively quickly when these factors are mutually reinforcing.

Industrial Transformation research based on a systems change approach would typically consist of the following three components:

1. analysing the system in cultural, economic, and technical terms (i.e., the entrenchment of technologies, the cultural dominances, and the dominant economic system);
2. analysing the main driving forces for both conservation and change (environmental change as well as other types of crises); and
3. designing long term visions as well as short-term plans and designs for change, and exploring alternative transformation trajectories. Such designs should be developed interactively with experts and stakeholders and require experiments (Schot and Rip, 1997).

A systems approach provides a more comprehensive, conceptual framework for analysing the relationship between social and physical environments. This is clear when dealing with energy and materials, food, and water. In such cases, the system is influenced by a dynamic network of activities and societal actors. It starts with the withdrawal of goods from the natural environment and ends with the release of waste products into the environment. These influences transform natural systems through human action.

The systems approach can also be used to analyse the ways in which changes in the information and communication system affect environmental resource use. Research on the spatial component of Industrial Transformation can also benefit from a systems approach. In this case it is the relationship between the geographic and resource use patterns, and changes therein, that is the subject of research. Finally, a systems approach can be useful in the generic assessment of changing patterns of group interactions between society and the natural environment.