HD Research: Climate Variability: A Mongolian Case Study

The author, speaking at the conference “Nature, Society and History: Long Term
Dynamics of Social Metabolism.” (Vienna, Austria, Sept.30-Oct.2, 1999).

There is a strong linkage between climate, landscape, nomadic society and its culture and history in Mongolia. Nomadic pastoral systems are dissipative structure-functions immersed in highly temporally variable and spatially heterogeneous arid ecosystems. They developed to improve their own ability to survive and dissipate energy from the Sun. Low precipitation, extreme temperatures, and diversity of ecosystems (with the Hangai and Hentii mountains in the north, the Gobi desert and Altai mountains in the south, and transition zone-Steppe in the middle) were necessary conditions for the emergence of nomadic pastoralism in the territory of Mongolia. Human interactions with nature have shaped ecosystems for centuries, leading to both the rangeland ecosystems and the nomadic way of life becoming synergistic, sustainable systems. Simple, short term actions such as the herders seasonally moving their animals blend with longer term behaviour to avoid drought conditions by moving for longer distances. However, long-term climate oscillations have been a main driver of long-wave migrations for nomadic societies and turbulent history in this part of the World.

Climate variability and non-equilibrium ecosystem dynamics: Dry ecosystems are often controlled by the dynamics of droughts and highly variable rainfall patterns. Where droughts and blizzards are frequent, livestock population fluctuations prevent plants and herbivores from developing closely coupled interactions, and ecosystems seldom reach a climatically determined equilibrium point. Evidence suggests that ecosystems in Africa experience high rainfall variability i.e., where coefficient of inter-annual variation (CV) exceeds about 33%, ecosystem dynamics will seldom reach equilibrial conditions. It is possible that non-equilibrial conditions may prevail in regions where long-term average precipitation (threshold level) is 266 mm or below. This includes over one-half of the territory of Mongolia.

Global warming may move existing ecosystem boundaries to the north in Mongolia. General Circulation Models predict that climate variability might increase with global warming. If so, climate changes may also increase the threshold for ecosystems with non-equilibrial dynamics, and thus regions where non-equilibrial dynamics occur may occupy an even greater area than today. The Mongolian Plateau appears to be very sensitive to climate changes, especially those changes that would increase water stress during the short growing season of these steppe ecosystems. The slight changes in rainfall during the critical months of May through July in this region illustrate the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental changes.

Climate oscillations and nomads’ migrations: “The Great Wall” is a line drawn by nature, for it distinguishes lands suitable for agriculture from those that are not. This pastoral frontier is dynamic, oscillating with climate changes.

An example of the dynamic nature of this system is the West Liao basin in China, situated in the transition zone between agriculture and animal husbandry (Reardon-Anderson, pers. comm.). Agriculture spread northward beyond the Xilamulun River during the Holocene Hypsithermal (5000-1000 BC) and in other periods of climatic amelioration. The collapse of agriculture and its replacement by pastoral nomadism as the dominant economy of this region were linked to a sharp decline in both temperature and moisture that began around 1000 BC.

Gumilev described three dry periods of the Mongolian Steppe in the 3rd century BC, beginning of the 4th century AD and 17th century AD, during which the Mongolian nomads migrated southward even beyond the Great Walls. He also described three “good” periods for the steppe: 2nd century BC - 1st century AD, mid 4th century AD and 13th century AD. Opposing migrations into the Mongolian Steppe occurred when the Huns moved back to the north from China in the 2nd century BC and the Uygurs came from Gansu region in the 4th century AD.

In this century, the “natural boundary” between agriculture and animal husbandry in China was forced to move to the north politically and economically. As a result, degradation of ecological system and desertification occurred along the boundary zones.

Nomadic informal institutions: A hierarchy of informal social institutions such as hot ail (a number of several households who live and pool together their resources), neg golynhan (which means “people from the same river area”), and neg nutgiinhan (which means “people from the same living place”) exists in the Mongolian nomadic pastoral system. These informal traditional pastoral institutions, especially at hot ail level, have re-emerged after privatization of animals in early 1990s. This hierarchy of social organization (perhaps acting as a complex adaptive system) has likely served and continues to serve as a resilience mechanism against natural hazards such as droughts and blizzards in the nomadic pastoral systems of Mongolia. The fact that even people in the urban centers keep their ties to the former informal institutions proves how strong this traditional social organization can be.

Turbulent history: Ecological and economic interdependency of the Mongolian steppe developed at least in the third century BC, when the Hun tribal union formed and the nomadic herdsmen of the Mongolian plains began to gain economic and military power, geopolitical and personal affluence. In 198 BC the Han dynasty was forced to recognize the sovereign rights and territorial integrity of the Hun Empire by concluding a treaty whereby the Han emperor stated that “nomadic subjects who live to the north of the Long Wall must obey the behest of the Shan-yui. I am the ruler of those who dwell inside the Long Wall”.

Since that period a succession of nomadic empires on the territory of Mongolia followed: Hun Empire (3rd century BC - 1st century AD), Xian=pi Empire (1st - 4th century AD), Jujan Khanate (4th - 6th century AD), Turkic Khanate (6th - 8th century AD), Uygur Khanate (7th - 9th century AD), Kidan Empire (10th - 12th century AD) and finally, Mongol Empire (13th - 14th century AD). The Mongols reached the zenith of their influence in the thirteenth century when Chingis Khaan and his descendants conquered most of Eurasia. Mongolia separated into different states in 15th - 16th centuries. From the 17th to early 20th century, the Manchu Ching Dynasty ruled over Mongolia. In 1911 Mongolia declared its independence from China. Afterwards, Mongolia had little choice but to fall from the “Dragon’s mouth” to the “Bear’s claws” in 1921, thus becoming the first Soviet satellite country. Increased population and economic growth were observed during the Soviet period. Seven decades later, Mongolia became the first Asian communist country to abandon Marxism and to make both political and economic transition to democracy and a free market economy at the same time. Mongolia has witnessed extremely turbulent dynamics in its transition process since 1990.

Re-thinking the transition stage: As the human in an embryo repeats its evolutionary steps, the transition to market economy in Mongolia may be repeating the evolution of market economies in a general sense. Self-interest and competition are still two main drivers at early stages of its transition. Mongolia was not an exception in choosing mainstream theoretical concepts, accepting the course of the Washington Consensus since 1996. The Mongolian Government also thinks that investments in human capital and knowledge are critical factors for shifts from a low to a high growth path of development.

Some scientists and politicians say that the development of human civilization has always been associated with settlement, thus the nomadic lifestyle should be changed to a sedentary one. I argue that the future of nomadic culture depends on the future development pathway taken by humankind. A holistic sustainable development approach, in which all economic, social and environmental systems are parts of the whole, is emerging as the dominant consensus in the modern world. If our choice is the sustainable pathway, where cultural diversity is acknowledged as a necessary element for the sustainable Earth system, then the nomadic culture should be preserved as the human adaptive system. Mongolia may be threatened by global changes, especially climate changes (both in trends and variability) if we lose the resilient mechanism of our indigenous land use system to cope with climate.

Summary: What lessons can we draw from Mongolian long-term dynamics of environment, society, and history in order to cope with future global changes? What policy implications can be drawn from the integrated analysis of climate, ecology, culture and history?

I would like to highlight following main points: 1) Sustainable development policy should promote traditional land use and nature conservation systems in every aspect, especially where there are clear links between these traditional systems and resilience; 2) Sustainable community development projects based on traditional informal institutions should be implemented; 3) A new administrative structure based on a north-south orientation should be introduced in Mongolia, to take account of natural nomadic behaviour.

I am proposing to develop a network of ecological, economic, social, political and cultural system studies of Mongolia, viewed as a complex system embedded in the global system. Non-linear interactions among all five sub-systems and the external interactions with the Earth system, global economy and western culture for the past 10 years period will be studied. We will hopefully be able to assess climatic, ecological, economic and social perturbation impacts. A main goal of this study is to investigate the vulnerability and security of the network against global environmental and economic shocks, by identifying critical regions.

By T. Chuluun
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory
Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523-1499, U.S.A. Email: chuluun@nrel.colostate.edu